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Flashpoint: Ukraine


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#1 Selena

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Posted 01 March 2014 - 02:47 PM

So, for those who have missed all the news regarding this:

 

* The Ukraine has been gripped with violent protests for a while now, with citizens initially rebelling against what they felt was an overreaching government.

 

* Part of that sentiment was a western-minded population opposing mostly Russian-influenced "puppet" leaders. A culture clash. Because Russia has exerted a great deal of influence over the Ukraine ever since the Soviet breakup.

 

* Tensions have continued to rise. Especially in the region of Crimea, which is very pro-Russia. 

 

* Basically, the large western region of Ukraine wants to join Europe and break at least some of its ties to Russia. Crimea and the eastern population wants to stay under Russian influence. Threats of civil war. Crimea would - if their supporters succeed -- either become an autonomous state under Russian influence, or become part of Russia. 

 

 

Today/Last night:

 

* Russia approved a measure that would allow their troops to.... "liberate and suppress" the situation in the Ukraine. Which basically means invasion.

 

* They have not yet sent them in.

 

* The Russian council also debated pulling the Russian ambassador out of the US, though this has not yet happened. Which could mean that Russia expects us to come to a fierce standoff / to blows. Or, perhaps more realistically, it's just meant to be an insult (in response to the US saying there would be "repercussions" for Russia getting involved).

 

* US big-wigs have been in meetings all day, trying to come up with some kind of action plan.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

.....So, basically, there's a slight potential for military action -- with a slighter risk of WW3 happening, no big deal. But more realistically, they're going to do diplomacy and sanctions and whatnot. But the Russians won't care about that, which means they'll be all over the Ukraine and that Crimea will likely come under their full control. Kind of like what happened in Georgia a few years ago.

 

 

 

Opinions on situation? :o



#2 Egann

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Posted 02 March 2014 - 12:33 AM

Other than I'm having flashbacks to the Soviet occupation of Hungary? And to a lesser extent the Ethiopian Civil War?

 

It's nice to know that Russia learned absolutely nothing from the Cold War. Once there was even talk of Russia mobilizing troops, I more or less regarded it as a foregone conclusion they would invade. There was only one nation in the world with a worse history than the United States when it comes to proxy wars, and that was the Soviet Union. And, you know, eighty years of habit die hard. Russia is used to using military coercion to retain allies because that's what the Soviet Union did for so long. The history proving that is long and dark, and people seldom talk about it now that the Cold War is (technically) over.

 

So yeah, the troops ARE going to go in. It's just a matter of time.

 

Really, the first objective in any military confrontation is to have a plan for handling refugees, both short and long term. Without people to subjugate (and that's more or less what this is about) there's nothing to wage war over. Whoever is interested in leaving, either forever or just to dodge the chaos, should be able to leave before Russian troops arrive, and the UN would be perfectly within their jurisdiction to call for military forces to protect refugees, too. It's not likely, but they could.

 

What's likely to happen is a bunch of ho-humming until Russia's done splattering walls with rebel brains, then they'll clean everything up and pretend nothing happened.



#3 Veteran

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Posted 04 March 2014 - 06:26 PM

Really it's looking like the outcome will be Crimea being absorbed into Russia. From a self-interest point of view perhaps if Russia continue being silly about everything the 2018 World Cup will be taken from them and given to England!





Oh, and stop saying the Ukraine. :P

#4 Jasi

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Posted 04 March 2014 - 07:58 PM

Oh, and stop saying the Ukraine. :P

 

I learned something today!

 

http://www.businessi...ers-now-2013-12



#5 Selena

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Posted 04 March 2014 - 09:29 PM

Sorry I missed the '91 memo. :o

 

 

 

But yeah. There's a quote from Lion in Winter that more or less sums up the situation.

 

 

Henry II: The Vexin's mine.

 

Philip II: By what authority?

 

Henry II: It's got my troops all over it; that makes it mine.

 

 

(excellent movie by the way, definitely see at some point if you haven't -- the Peter O'Toole and Katharine Hepburn version)

 

 

 

With the EU iffy on hardline sanctions -- which probably wouldn't matter much to Russia anyway -- there's not much intimidation factor from the NATO states. So, yes, Crimea will probably be annexed. Or the country will be split. 

 

Though it's interesting to hear about the Ukrainian party currently in power. It sounds like the Ukrainian version of the Stormcloaks in Skyrim -- seeking independence, but quietly kinda racist. They've been described as Neo-Nazi by some people. Which isn't getting much coverage. If that's the case, then all the better to stay out of it, in my opinion! No winner I'd want to put my chips behind!



#6 JRPomazon

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Posted 15 March 2014 - 08:09 PM

Welp, it's official: Russia is invading Ukraine outside of Crimea

http://www.thedailyb...de-ukraine.html

 

To keep it brief, the US has no horse in this race and will probably not help. Whatever the UN could do will be vetoed outright because Russia is in the security council. It'll be in the EU's hands whether Ukraine's decision to go with them was the smart one and whether they will do something about Russia.

 

EDIT:

 

My personal thoughts are this. Russia won't stop with Crimea. They want Ukraine one way or another and Putin is a man without reservation to taking what he wants.


Edited by JRPomazon, 15 March 2014 - 08:12 PM.





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