23 replies to this topic

[Egann]

I'm surprised this topic hasn't already been made.

For all two people who don't know, quite recently North Korea detonated a nuclear warhead in an underground test. Now, they have effectively declared that the cease fire that ended the Korean war ends some time on Monday. And they're at least threatening to go back to war.

I could post a dozen links, but I'm feeling lazy so I'll just throw up these two.

MSNBC
NY Times

If North Korea actually goes to war, they'll get eviscerated, even if they have (and use) nukes. South Korea has too many allies (now including China, because they don't want fallout from the neighbor's nuclear war). North Korea almost certainly only has a few more nukes (if any: I suspect the one they tested was stolen when the Soviet Union collapsed) but even if they have thousands, they're looking at a Pyrrhic victory at best. More realistically, South Korea wins.

I do think that there's a rational explanation to what's going on, however. Inside North Korea, preparing to go back to war would justify substantial abuse of martial law and let the North Korean administration do a good bit of house cleaning (i.e. democide.) To top things off, with the nuclear weapons test, they can rest easy that, unless they actually provoke a war, no one else will risk one.

So no, I don't think there'll be a war. But considering what I'm pretty sure is going in in North Korea right now, I hardly consider that a relief.

[JRPomazon]

They don't have the capability to launch anything with any hopes of it reaching D.C. but that doesn't mean they couldn't hit U.S. soil if they wanted to. I can't see that move being anything except suicide if they went through with it. Frankly, if they want a war they are more than welcome to it. They just have no hopes of winning.

[Oberon Storm]

I'm not at all confident the U.S. can another war.

[Jasi]

Not that I'm an expert, but I am confident that the US wouldn't have any problems winning against North Korea, especially with South Korea and China (apparently, according to Egann?) on our side...and the rest of the first-world nations. This is hardly another Iraq situation—what North Korea is doing inside its own country is completely deplorable, everyone agrees, and I would think that the UN would side with Team America: World Police on this one. The only reason war has been avoided thus far is because we don't want to endanger South Korea, but if North Korea starts it, well...

[Egann]

I am confident that the US wouldn't have any problems winning against North Korea, especially with South Korea and China (apparently, according to Egann?) on our side...and the rest of the first-world nations. This is hardly another Iraq situation...

Yup. That's what I've heard. Here's a link.

Ignoring threats of retaliation, the United Nations Security Council ordered new economic sanctions against North Korea on Thursday for its third nuclear test last month, unanimously approving a resolution that the United States negotiated with China, the North’s greatest protector....

The 15-to-0 Security Council vote places potentially painful new constraints on North Korean banking, trade and travel, pressures countries to search suspect North Korean cargo and includes new enforcement language absent from previous measures. But the provisions are in some ways less important than China’s participation in writing them, suggesting that the country has lost patience with the neighbor it supported in the Korean War. While China’s enforcement of sanctions on North Korea remains to be seen, it may now be more assertive.

Oh, dear. THIRD nuclear test. Maybe I was wrong: it looks like they've got a few.

Really, as soon as we invented ballistic missile interceptors (and the US has had a few installed in Alaska for several years ago) we should've licensed the tech at cost to everyone on two conditions: shoot down ANY nuclear missile launch in your range (regardless of who launched and who is the target, and to keep up with peaceful launches so you don't turn an expensive satellite into confetti.

But still, I think this is basically so North Korea can clean house from all the turmoil Kim Jong Il's succession and the like. Any North Korean military which will go ahead with a nuclear launch order (knowing the backlash) is certifiably insane, and a sane dictator would know better than to put them to the test.

[Veteran]

It's the Japanese we need to be wary of, if Splinter Cell Chaos Theory comes true (one third of the way there).

[Selena]

Everyone in North Korea is crazy, but I don't think they're that crazy. It's probably just Junior (or the elite members of the military working through Junior) trying to assert himself as a manly-manny-man now that he's in charge. Waving their middle finger at the rest of the world has always been their only real way to pretend to have even the slightest bit of power.

The Koreas need to be reunited, or at least reach a proper agreement, but the North's incessantly angry dynasty is going to make a diplomatic solution impossible -- at least for another generation or two. War, sadly, might be the only way (or at least the only timely way) to eradicate the North. Saber-rattling aside, it's not too likely that someone would actually use a nuke. They have to know that if they used just one, the US would drop like five in retaliation. And that would be it.

But with the Northern population so indoctrinated, at least from what we've seen in documentaries, then there'd be massive problems if foreigners came in and disbanded the DPRK in the event of conflict. And let's face it. Our track record of "bringing democracy to formerly oppressed countries" leaves much to be desired.

I highly doubt anything will happen. It's just another case of "Oh, North Korea."

If something does happen, and the tension in that region finally breaks completely, then South Korea (with US and Japanese support) will steamroll through the entire peninsula. We're better at fighting conventional wars. It'd be over in months -- even weeks. Should they be crazy enough to launch a nuke at US soil, then we have defenses in place to prematurely detonate it. The technology they're using has to be Soviet-era. Or a slightly modified form of it.

Them dropping a nuke on Seoul is more likely, however, and I don't know if our defense network could adequately prevent that from happening. I'm not sure how comprehensive their own defenses are.




(And yes, this would rack up more national debt, but at this point it's so bad that I doubt we'll ever recover no matter what actions we take.)

[arunma]

It's true the North Koreans don't have the capability to launch their nukes anywhere. The nuke itself is 40s technology, what makes it potent is delivery capabilities via rockets (60s tech) and the most up-to-date guidance systems (presumably 2013+ tech). I suppose they could have terrorists smuggle it into the US, but it's not like we should be worried of a nuclear attack. All of the old Cold War enemies like Russia, China, etc. don't want a nuclear war anymore than we do. This is evidenced by the fact that even China isn't backing North Korea here.

I'm not saying I want them to go to war. But if they do, and basically get taken over by South Korea, that might be a quick end to a half-century old problem. Plus the North Koreans will be living better under a capitalist economy. Just sayin'...

[Jasi]

Them dropping a nuke on Seoul is more likely, however, and I don't know if our defense network could adequately prevent that from happening. I'm not sure how comprehensive their own defenses are.

Me either, but yes, I've heard that the real threat is the possibility of Seoul being destroyed, and that the US and even the rest of South Korea is not in much danger.

[arunma]

Saber-rattling has gotten worse. According to CNN, the cease fire is over:

http://www.cnn.com/2....html?hpt=hp_c1

Technically this means the Korean War is back on.

[Chikara Nadir]

Came in here because the front page cut off the last word of the title half way. Now I'm sad to know there's no such thing as a "North Korean Saber-Rat."

But hey, Kim is making himself all the more entertaining by the day.

http://www.cnn.com/2...html?hpt=hp_bn2

"As the saying goes ... a guy who is fond of playing with fire is bound to perish in flames" Kim told soldiers, according to the state-run Korean Central News Agency. "All the enemies quite often playing with fire in the sensitive hotspot should be thrown into a cauldron once I issue an order."

"Once an order is issued," Kim told the troops, "you should break the waists of the crazy enemies, totally cut their windpipes and thus clearly show them what a real war is like."

[arunma]

Heh, yeah Kim and those North Koreans are a special kind of crazy. Though they do kind of remind me of Ahmadinijad and the whole "we can control the drone!" thing from back when they captured a US drone. Not gonna lie: they're lame.

Here's a random but totally on topic question. Why aren't we trying Dennis Rodman for treason or finding some other excuse to bust his ass? Seriously, going and hanging out with the bad guys? That has to be wrong on at least a couple different levels.

[Crimson Lego]

Here's a random but totally on topic question. Why aren't we trying Dennis Rodman for treason or finding some other excuse to bust his ass? Seriously, going and hanging out with the bad guys? That has to be wrong on at least a couple different levels.

He's an NBA Hall of Famer who's basically put himself in American culture cause of him playing with Jordan and Pippen; I think all of America, or at least Chicago, would go crazy if he was tried.

[Sir Deimos]

You severely overestimate America's opinion of Dennis Rodman.

[Selena]

Yeah, if people still call Jane Fonda awful names for having gone to Hanoi to see what the Vietcong was like, I'm pretty sure there wouldn't be much sympathy for Dennis Rodman.

[Oberon Storm]

Did Rodman really break any laws?

Edited by Chief Fire Storm, 15 March 2013 - 06:43 PM.

[Crimson Lego]

I doubt it; his behaviour whilst in NK certainly doesn't help his relationship with the US gov.

[JRPomazon]

You severely overestimate America's opinion of Dennis Rodman.

I honestly forgot he was alive until I heard about him visiting North Korea. Also, I find it a little unnerving that one of the only people from outside North Korea to be that close to Kim Jong-Un happens to be Rodman. I mean, in this scenario he is on the same level as a international diplomat.

[Chikara Nadir]

Even more disturbing when you put it that way, Jerp, because that means that Dennis Rodman is the closest thing we have to a diplomat representing the US. We can only hope he's making a good impression, although based on Kim Jong Un's other comments and actions it seems to be a relationship apathetic of recognizing where Rodman comes from.


And, of course, the obvious pic that sums it all up.

[Sir Turtlelot]

Until now, I had no idea who Dennis Rodman was.

[Twinrova]

...Really?

[Sir Turtlelot]

I've heard the name in passing, but I never really knew who he was.

[Chikara Nadir]

He was one of the greats at his time. So good, so famous, that people were able to ignore the fact that he was apeshit insane and even married himself. Literally. Basketball hall of fame, ran with the Chicago Bulls around the same time as Michael Jordan.

Also, http://www.cnn.com/2....html?hpt=hp_t1

"You have a 28-year-old leader who is trying to prove himself to the military, and the military is eager to have a saber-rattling for their own self-interest," said Rep. Mike Rogers, the chairman of the House Intelligence Committee. "And the combination of that is proving to be very, very deadly."

[Wolf O'Donnell]

Heh, yeah Kim and those North Koreans are a special kind of crazy. Though they do kind of remind me of Ahmadinijad and the whole "we can control the drone!" thing from back when they captured a US drone. Not gonna lie: they're lame.

Here's a random but totally on topic question. Why aren't we trying Dennis Rodman for treason or finding some other excuse to bust his ass? Seriously, going and hanging out with the bad guys? That has to be wrong on at least a couple different levels.

Presumably because they were hoping his exchange would be some kind of Ping-pong diplomacy for North Korea. Given what he actually did whilst he was over there, it was probably a wasted opportunity... either that or he tried it too soon.

We're all pretty sure that the North Koreans don't war, but that's not the problem. The fear is that as things continue down this line, someone is going to misread signals. I'm reminded of a story about the Germans during World War I. They were passing through a town and the soldiers were incredibly nervous and jumpy. One German soldier accidentally fired his gun. The entire regiment believed they were under fire and started attacking the town. An entire town was ravaged, innocents killed, because the Germans thought they were under attack from the townsfolk.

The longer this continues, the greater the chance of it happening. North Korea could misread the movements of people near the border as being troop movements and decide to invade. A South Korean at the border could accidentally shoot a North Korean. Heck, given some of the friendly fire incidents I heard about, it wouldn't surprise me if the US accidentally started a war in the region.

And let's not get started over the tensions between China and the other nations in the region. I can easily forsee North Korea taking advantage if war breaks out between China and Vietnam or China and Japan or China and the Phillipines or China and Malaysia or China and Brunei. It will hopefully not come to that because China presumably has business interests in these countries, but who's to say? In such a situation, I can imagine China and North Korea fighting on one front and any sort of combination with the US on the other.